Presidential, House and Senate Races Ramp Up and New Betting Lines Appear

Senate and House Elections

November 3rd approaches on the horizon, captivating the attention of a nation wishing to anchor the United States on greener pastures.

The Joe Biden campaign rallies workers, students, Black voters, Latinx voters, and Trump turncoats under a unified message: bring normality back into the White House and stability back into our democratic institutions

President Trump primarily markets to political and religious conservatives, non-educated white voters, and white women voters.

The odds for the 2020 Presidential Election see large amounts of action.

Here are a few that we are keeping our eyes on:

Popular Vote Winner
Democrats -650
Republicans +400

The polls and the odds both indicate a Democratic victory when it comes to the popular vote. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016, and we expect a repeat for Biden in 2020.

Voter Turnout in the U.S Presidential Election
Over 149.5 million voters -250
Under 149.5 million voters +175

Voter Turnout in the U.S. Presidential Election
Over 60.5 % -145
Under 60.5 % +115

Many Americans report the 2020 election as more important than previous ones. Additionally, the 2018 mid-term elections saw the highest voter turnout since 1914, indicating a similar record number on November 3rd.

Sources claim over 10 million Americans already voted via mail-in ballots, with a strong Democratic voting surge.

Will Trump lose every state he lost in 2016
Yes -290
No +230

The states that Donald Trump lost are widening their margins in favor of Biden, don’t expect Trump to flip any of those states.

Will Trump win every state he won in 2016
No -800
Yes +500

We can see shifts throughout many states that Trump won easily in 2016. For example, Pennsylvania gave Trump 20 electoral votes in 2016, but today Biden leads by over six percentage points.

Winner of the popular vote wins electoral college
Yes -225
No+185

It looks like the odds for a Democratic sweep are strong.

What some overlook, however, are the odds in the House and Senate.

House Seats Won by Democrats
Over 209.5 Seats -3300
Under 209.5 Seats +1400

Majority Control of the U.S. Senate
DEM Senators in 117th Congress -225
REP Senators in 117th Congress +160

U.S. Senate & House of Representatives
Any Other balance of Power -170
DEM Control House & REP Control Senate +140

The Democratic sweep does not stop at the executive branch. Both polls and odds predict large turnarounds for the Democratic Party in the legislature.

The balance of power is a trickier proposition. A full Democratic win across House and Senate only leads by a small margin.

Meanwhile, lines open and close on state-by-state Senate races.

Montana
S. Daines (R) -205 
S. Bullock (D) +170 

South Carolina
L. Graham (R) -315 
J. Harrison (D)+245

Arizona
M. McSally (R) +400 
M. Kelly (D) -550 

Keep an eye out for these odds because they appear and disappear daily.

Sources:
CNBC
Pew Research

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