The Presidential race is the most noted political event in American history. Every four years, many Republican, Democrat, and third-party candidates spend much time and vast resources to campaign for the chance to sit in the Oval Office. The Presidential election is the perfect opportunity to profit from placing a wager.
Gambling on Presidential elections not only allows the public to invest in the outcome of a major political event but to also reveal the direction in which the public truly believes that the country is moving. In this portion of the political betting guide, expect to gain knowledge on key factors to consider when betting on the Presidential election.
Current Presidential Election Odds - 2020
Is It Legal To Bet On The Presidential Election?
Betting on the Presidential election is legal in jurisdictions that have legalized sports betting. Recently, the Supreme Court ruled in Murphy v. NCAA that the Professional Amateur and Sports Act is unconstitutional, which effectively lifted the 25-year federal ban on sports betting. This, in turn, allowed US states to consider legalizing sports gambling bills through their respective state legislatures.
States that have legalized sports betting include Delaware, West Virginia, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Mississippi, Nevada, and New Jersey. Arkansas has also legalized sports betting but has not launched their licensed betting operations. It is also legal to bet on Presidential elections, Senate elections, House of Representative elections, and Gubernatorial elections through licensed offshore sportsbooks in 48 US states, excluding Connecticut and Washington.
2020 Republican Candidates
Donald Trump (incumbent)
2020 Democratic Candidates
Key Factors To Consider When Betting On The Presidential Election
Two key factors to consider when determining the best possible outcome of Presidential elections are the popular vote and the electoral college.
Popular votes are widely considered as the collective voice of the people. Ideally, the candidate that wins the majority of the popular vote is the candidate that wins the Presidency. However, there have been four elections, including the very recent 2016 Presidential election, in which the odds have tipped in the favor of the other candidate due to the electoral college.
The founders of this nation created the electoral college because they believed that the public should not be able to directly elect their leader. Each of the 538 electors gets assigned to states based on state population. If the majority of the popular vote in a state is for a specific candidate, then the winner takes all electors of that state in most cases.
Electors pledge but are not required to choose the Presidential candidate that the people of their political party voted for. Clearly, the electoral college system throws a wrench into the political betting odds as the electoral college has directly contradicted the popular vote on multiple occasions. Nevertheless, the Presidential pick of the electoral college prevails, for this reason, consider the function of the electoral college before placing any political bet on the Presidency.
Other factors to consider when gambling on US politics are historic trends of political parties that win and how likely it is for that bipartisan party to prevail again, the state of the national economy, the political climate, each candidate's stance on political issues, how the majority of people perceive the candidate, how well the candidate appeals to its audience, how wide and far-reaching the platform and views of the candidate has, and so on.
Note that the popular vote and majority public opinion are not the sole influencers of elections. In the next election and many to come, it is important to observe trends in the polls while keeping an eye on the political strategies of each candidate as they climb their respective ladders in the primaries.
A very popular type of bet to place months or even years in advance is a futures bet. Futures bets are a great way to reap a very sizable payout while risking very little money. To place a futures bet, pick from a long list of people that could possibly run for the Presidency.
A few examples of names featured on the odds list for 2020 include Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Michelle Obama, Kanye West, Oprah Winfrey, and Mark Zuckerberg. Other future bets could include Presidential impeachment, resignation, or who will talk the most at the next democratic debate.
To attempt to win a futures bet, determine the level of success that these possible candidates could have with their associated political party. On this note, consider whether the individual is affiliated with the Republican party, Democratic party, or another third party to determine their likeliness to succeed and earn a party nomination. Another thing to consider is which political party the incumbent President is a member of and/or whether he or she is eligible for another term.
Another tip is to consider the general success that the candidate has enjoyed throughout his or her career, whether political or not. Although an individual may not have political experience, such as Trump, they may win the election due to their business savvy as we saw in the 2016 Elections. As new generations emerge, what may have appealed to the public in 2008 may not have the same effect during the 2020 Presidential elections.
Essentially, betting on Presidential elections can be very profitable when employing proper strategies and understanding how various factors influence election outcomes. Incorporate the information in this section into betting strategies to better the odds of earning winnings when betting on the 2020 Presidential election.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. When is the next presidential election?
The next presidential election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020.
2. When will we know who is running for president?
Within the first six months of 2020, primary elections will solidify the 2020 presidential candidates.
3. Are there prop bets during the presidential campaign?
There will be many prop bets during the presidential campaign and after the nominees are chosen for each party.
4. Are there any betting odds currently available for the presidential elections?
There are betting odds currently available for the presidential election subject to many changes as 2020 nears. According to industry insiders, Donald Trump sits at the top of the list with the betting odds at +140. Kamala Harris ties with Bernie Sanders for the second spot at +1200.