As President Trump forecasts a red wave of political control of Congress in contrast to the blue wave predicted earlier this year by political betting markets, neither seem to be likely according to more recent developments. Although many oddsmakers have selected the Democratic party as the frontrunner for the House of Representatives for the mid-term elections, many political betting markets suggest that the Republican party is likely to retain control of the Senate. More than likely, Congress will enjoy shared control with opposing parties controlling the House and Senate, effectively crashing both the red and blue waves.
Key factors in determining which elections are key to watch include whether or not incumbents are retiring, the overall political climate in that state, and the reputation of the candidates that are running for election. As soon as the betting odds for the 2018 Senate races are posted, we will be placing them here. Below is a list of legally sanctioned online sportsbooks that offer betting lines and the political props associated with the upcoming elections.
Trusted Sportsbooks For Betting On 2024 Senate Races
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Majority Outcome Odds To Win The Senate In 2024
| 2018 Senate Majority | Bovada Odds |
|---|---|
| Republican Majority | -500 |
| Democratic Majority | +700 |
| No Overall Majority | +575 |
Texas Senate Odds For The 2024 Election
| 2018 Texas Senate Candidate | Bovada Odds |
|---|---|
| Ted Cruz | -500 |
| Beto O'Rourke | +350 |
Toss Up States
According to Real Clear Politics and 270towin, there are 6 toss-up states and an interchangeable seventh state. Both sources list Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, and North Dakota. Tennessee and West Virginia may also be considered tossups. Two key states to watch are Tennessee and Florida.
Tennessee
Tennessee is a key race to watch as both parties battle over the seat of retiring Republican Senator Bob Corker. The two candidates include former Democratic Tennessee governor Phil Bredesen and Republican House Representative Marsha Blackburn.
Former governor Bredesen was leading in the polls by a 10-point margin in March. However, the forecast has quickly changed. A more recent Gravis survey shows Blackburn leading Bredesen by four points. The odds of Republican Congresswoman Blackburn winning a Senate seat are increasing as she takes clear stances on her conservative views in this deeply Republican state.
As polls show that Tennessee will elect someone that supports President Trump’s immigration tactics and his Supreme Court pick Brett Kavanaugh, Blackburn passes the test as she aligns herself with Trump’s mantra to “Make America Great Again”. The betting odds of Congresswoman Blackburn representing Tennessee in the Senate are expected to continue rising as November midterm elections near.
Florida
The Senate races to represent Florida is also key to watch as voters are equally likely to vote in a Democratic or Republican senator. Republican Governor Rick Scott is challenging Democratic Senator Bill Nelson. As Governor Scott outspends Senator Nelson with a ratio of 4 to 1, the contenders remain close in the polls.
Additionally, Governor Scott recently signed a bill into law that regulates gun control, which appeases members of both political parties in the wake of the tragic school shooting in Parkland, Florida. Although incumbents normally have an edge in Senate seats, it is unclear who will win the Senate seat in this election and betting odds show this phenomenon.
On a National Scale
On a national scale, 23 Democratic states and 42 Republican states have Senate seats that are not up for re-election. As Democrats defend more seats, Republicans have an edge to retain control of the Senate as they require nine seats as opposed to Democrats requiring 28 seats.
Taking into account that only seven toss-up states exist, there is still a slim chance that the Democratic party can take over the Senate but political betting markets have pinned this as highly unlikely, assigning likelihood from 9.1% to 18.2%. Political betting markets have deemed the Republican party as the victor with odds of 71.4% to 75%.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. What if the Senate odds favor candidates I’m opposed to?
If the Senate odds favor candidates you are opposed to, bet on the candidate or parties that are most likely to win. Placing bets does not imply that you are aligning your views with a particular party or candidate. Betting is a strategic method of attempting to earn payouts.
2. Will the odds on the Senate races always match the polls?
The Senate betting odds have a strong correlation to the polls, but they will not always match the polls accurately. Political betting markets vary on the odds they assign based on how sure they are of a particular outcome. Odds also vary as bookmakers compete to have the most competitive payouts.
3. Do the House election odds have any correlation to the Senate election odds?
When anticipating a red wave or blue wave, where one political party takes the majority of Congress, the House election odds may correlate with Senate election odds. However, beware of using the House election odds as a guideline for the Senate election odds as the factors that influence House elections may not influence Senate elections as heavily. For example, all seats of the House are up for election this year, but a minority of Senate seats are up for election. Therefore, the probability of drastic change across the Senate is much less likely than a change in the House.
4. Does the President’s approval rating affect the Senate betting odds?
The President’s current approval rating affects the Senate betting odds, but not drastically in this coming election. As there is a minority of Senate seats up for election, the President’s approval ratings may not affect which party controls the Senate quite as much as in previous years. A stronger factor in the Senate elections would be the margins by which the President won or lost the presidential election in each state that a Senate election is being held.
5. Where can I find the most competitive betting odds?
It is always advised to shop around for the best odds. This task is much easier when dealing with online sportsbooks. We have presented a list of top rated online betting sites that offer political odds. While they are all highly reputable, their odds and paylines will vary. It is in your best interest to check them all out for the best possible advantage when placing your bets. The bookmakers featured in this guide carry odds and paylines comparable to the Vegas bookmakers.