The Joe Biden campaign rallies workers, students, Black voters, Latinx voters, and Trump turncoats under a unified message: bring normality back into the White House and stability back into our democratic institutions

President Trump primarily markets to political and religious conservatives, non-educated white voters, and white women voters.

The odds for the 2020 Presidential Election see large amounts of action.

Here are a few that we are keeping our eyes on:

Popular Vote Winner
Democrats -650
Republicans +400

The polls and the odds both indicate a Democratic victory when it comes to the popular vote. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016, and we expect a repeat for Biden in 2020.

Voter Turnout in the U.S Presidential Election
Over 149.5 million voters -250
Under 149.5 million voters +175

Voter Turnout in the U.S. Presidential Election
Over 60.5 % -145
Under 60.5 % +115

Many Americans report the 2020 election as more important than previous ones. Additionally, the 2018 mid-term elections saw the highest voter turnout since 1914, indicating a similar record number on November 3rd.

Sources claim over 10 million Americans already voted via mail-in ballots, with a strong Democratic voting surge.

Will Trump lose every state he lost in 2016
Yes -290
No +230

The states that Donald Trump lost are widening their margins in favor of Biden, don’t expect Trump to flip any of those states.

Will Trump win every state he won in 2016
No -800
Yes +500

We can see shifts throughout many states that Trump won easily in 2016. For example, Pennsylvania gave Trump 20 electoral votes in 2016, but today Biden leads by over six percentage points.

Winner of the popular vote wins electoral college
Yes -225
No+185

It looks like the odds for a Democratic sweep are strong.

What some overlook, however, are the odds in the House and Senate.

House Seats Won by Democrats
Over 209.5 Seats -3300
Under 209.5 Seats +1400

Majority Control of the U.S. Senate
DEM Senators in 117th Congress -225
REP Senators in 117th Congress +160

U.S. Senate & House of Representatives
Any Other balance of Power -170
DEM Control House & REP Control Senate +140

The Democratic sweep does not stop at the executive branch. Both polls and odds predict large turnarounds for the Democratic Party in the legislature.

The balance of power is a trickier proposition. A full Democratic win across House and Senate only leads by a small margin.

Meanwhile, lines open and close on state-by-state Senate races.

Montana
S. Daines (R) -205 
S. Bullock (D) +170 

South Carolina
L. Graham (R) -315 
J. Harrison (D)+245

Arizona
M. McSally (R) +400 
M. Kelly (D) -550 

Keep an eye out for these odds because they appear and disappear daily.

Sources:
CNBC
Pew Research

According to the most recent polling data gathered on a national scale and averaged by RealClearPolitics, a whopping 41.4% of likely Democratic voters say they support Biden over all other Democrats running for president in next year’s primary election.

This gives Biden a 26.8-point advantage over Bernie Sanders, who is the only other candidate who polls in the double digits with 14.6% of Democratic respondents saying they support him for the party’s nomination.

When looking at the betting odds to see who the bookmakers and the public believes will get the nod from Dems in 2020, Biden leads all candidates but by a much smaller margin.

Currently, Bovada lists Biden at +225 ($100 bet wins $225) which gives him a 30.77% chance to win the Democratic nomination when the odds are converted to an implied probability.

Sanders places second in the odds as well and is listed at +325, giving him a 23.53% chance be the party’s pick to be the next President of the United States — only 7.24% behind Biden.

Below you will find the polling data and betting odds — arguably two of the most reliable prediction methods available — for Biden, Sanders, and all of the 2020 Democratic candidates who’ve officially announced their White House bid.

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Polling Data

RealClearPolitics – May 13, 2019

The following polling data is based on the “RCP average” from April 25 through May 5 and includes numbers from the latest national polls conducted by The Hill/Harris X, Morning Consult, Harvard-Harris, CNN, and Quinnipiac.

• Joe Biden 41.4%
• Bernie Sanders 14.6%
• Elizabeth Warren 8.0%
• Kamala Harris 7.0%
• Pete Buttigieg 6.6%
• Beto O’Rourke 4.4%
• Cory Booker 2.6%
• Amy Klobuchar 1.4%
• Andrew Yang 0.8%
• Tulsi Gabbard 0.8%
• Julian Castro 0.8%
• Kirsten Gillibrand 0.6%
• Tim Ryan 0.6%
• Jay Inslee 0.6%
• John Delaney 0.6%
• John Hickenlooper 0.2%

*All other candidates received less than 0.1%

Odds to win the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination

Bovada – May 13, 2019

The betting odds below are based on the current “US Presidential Election 2020 – Democratic Candidate” betting line found in the “Politics” section at Bovada Sportsbook. Oddsmakers evaluate each candidates’ chances of winning the nomination and post a betting line that they believe will receive “equal action.” Odds can then fluctuate if more/less public money is placed on one candidate over another.

• Joe Biden +225
• Bernie Sanders +325
• Kamala Harris +500
• Pete Buttigieg +550
• Elizabeth Warren +1200
• Andrew Yang +1400
• Beto O’Rourke +1600
• Cory Booker +2500
• Tulsi Gabbard +2500
• Amy Klobuchar +3300
• Hillary Clinton +4000
• Kirsten Gillibrand +6600
• Julian Castro +8000

At the beginning of February, Former Democratic Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke told Oprah in a televised interview that he’ll decide whether to enter the 2020 presidential race “by the end of this month.”

And the oddsmakers certainly like his chances at winning the 2020 presidential election, placing him in either the 3rd or 4th spot and giving him the best odds out of all the top candidates that have yet to announce — even beating out former Vice President Joe Biden, who also hasn’t decided on a 2020 run.

Beto O’Rourke – Odds to Win 2020 Presidential Election

• Bovada +800
• BetOnline +900

Now, with only a couple days remaining, O’Rourke hasn’t given any hints on what his decision will be. Even another run at the Senate is on the table since he could take a safer bet and challenge Republican John Cornyn for his seat next year. Ted Cruz defeated O’Rourke by a slim margin when his Senate seat in Texas was up for grabs during the 2018 midterms.

“I’m trying to figure out how I can best serve this country, where I can do the greatest good for the United States of America,” O’Rourke said when asked if running for the other Senate seat was a possibility. “So, yeah, I’m thinking through that and it, you know, may involve running for the presidency. It may involve something else.”

But O’Rourke stated that he doesn’t want to be held to the “end of the month” deadline set by himself but said he still expects to make a decision by the end of February as recent as last week.

“I won’t be limited by, you know, the end of this month,” O’Rourke said. “But I expect to be able to get to a decision by the end of this month.”

And according to CNN, he told reporters in Spanish that “he is not taking the Democratic vice presidential nomination off the table.”

O’Rourke has certainly made it a point to publicly challenge President Donald Trump recently — especially on his U.S.-Mexico border wall — and even organized a rally much larger than the president’s when he came to El Paso to have his own rally prior to declaring the national emergency to secure funds to construct a border wall.

Whether O’Rourke announces that he’ll enter the enormous field of Democrats vying for the party’s 2020 nomination by the end of February is not particularly make or break for his presidential odds.

However, when you consider the millions of dollars being raised for the campaigns of his competition — including Bernie Sanders raising $10 million in just one week — one has to think that the odds of him winning the White House in 2020 go down if he doesn’t decide by the end of February and as each second passes on the Beto O’Clock.

On Tuesday, Feb. 19, the independent senator from Vermont announced that he is running for President of the United States and will seek the 2020 Democratic nomination after several months of speculation from the public.

“I’m running for president. I am asking you to join me today as part of an unprecedented and historic grassroots campaign that will begin with at least 1 million people from across the country,” Sanders wrote in a tweet.

Sanders is currently listed at +1000 in the recently updated odds at Bovada and is one of the top betting favorites to win the 2020 presidential election. Only Donald Trump (+200), Kamala Harris (+500), Beto O’Rourke (+800), and Joe Biden (+800) have more favorable odds of taking the White House at this time.

He enters an ever-growing field of Democratic candidates seeking the 2020 presidential bid. Of the favorites, only O’Rourke and Biden have yet to officially declared on whether they will seek the party’s nomination.

The announcement from the 77-year old candidate first came in an interview on Vermont Public Radio and then through an email to supporters and via social media.

Sanders said his decision to run in 2020 was originally based on whether he was the best candidate to defeat President Trump in the general election next year, describing him as “a pathological liar, a fraud, a racist, a sexist, a xenophobe and someone who is undermining American democracy as he leads us in an authoritarian direction.”

However, over time and leading up to the announcement, Sanders said the focus for his campaign became much more important than any one person, including himself.

“Our campaign is not only about defeating Donald Trump, the most dangerous president in modern American history. It is not only about winning the Democratic nomination and the general election,” Sanders said. “Our campaign is about transforming our country and creating a government based on the principles of economic, social, racial and environmental justice.”

Sanders also had a message the rich and those who have controlled politicians in the past through lobbying and political action committees.

“They may have the money and the power. We have the people.”

On Monday, October 15, 2018, Facebook, the largest social network platform in the world with 1.5 billion users logging on daily, announced it will ban all false reports on requirements for voting, long wait times for voters, and violence at polling places for the rest of October and up to the Midterm Elections on November 6, 2018.

Facebook has traditionally had a hand-offs approach to censorship by banning all misinformation likely to avoid censorship charges.

However, the social network has been criticized for the way it negligently handled posts containing misinformation and fake news reports which were designed to suppress voting during the 2016 presidential election.

One of the most common posts made on Facebook during the 2016 presidential election to reduce voter turnout was targeted post at specific users telling them it was now possible to vote via text message.

Many polling experts have agreed posts like this led to lower voter turnout in 2016 presidential election, which was won by Donald Trump after getting +475 odds from Bovada on becoming the next President of the United States right before the first vote was counted on election night.

Even though Facebook will target and ban posts regarding voting misinformation this election cycle, Facebook News Feed Product Manager Tessa Lyons said the company will not prohibit posts from users containing false information regarding candidates, ballot measures, or any other election-related issues.

“We don’t believe we should remove things from Facebook that are shared by authentic people if they don’t violate those community standards, even if they are false,” said Lyons.

Under the newly-implemented company policy, posts containing links to news reports containing inflated numbers or are deemed misleading with the intent of discouraging voter turnout will be given to the Facebook fact-checkers to determine whether the post is false. If the post is deemed false, it will then be severely limited to a small group of the original poster’s most connected friends and banned from the vast majority of feeds from other friends in an effort to limit the spread of intentional voter misinformation leading up to the election this November.

Many critics of the policy believe Facebook is not going far enough to curb false information on its social networking platform and is opening the door for hackers and campaigns organized in Russia or other foreign countries who will attempt to interfere with the 2018 Midterm Elections – a sentiment that was recently echoed in August by President Trump’s Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats and other leaders on his national security team.

“I fully share the intelligence community’s assessments and past efforts and those today to interfere with our election and of the current threat,” said Coats. “Our adversaries have shown they have the willingness and capability to interfere in our elections.”

“We continue to see a pervasive messaging campaign by Russia to try to weaken and divide the United States. We also know the Russians tried to hack into and steal information from candidates and government officials alike,” said Coats. “We will continue to monitor and warn of any such efforts.”

In addition, Graham Brookie, head of the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab and other digital forensic experts believe the new policy for this election cycle won’t amount to much change as the Facebook fact-checkers will likely be bombarded with flagged posts, making it impossible to sift through and check each one for accuracy.

Bookie went even as far to say that until Facebook implements a serious policy to stop the spread of misinformation, then false news and reports will continue to thrive on the social media platform, harming the search for truth by everyday Americans and opening the door for foreign interference in future elections.

“Without a clear and transparent policy to curb the deliberate spread of false information that applies across platforms, we will continue to be vulnerable.”

As of Friday morning, September 28, 2018, odds heavily favored Brett Kavanaugh being confirmed as the next United States Supreme Court at Yes (-350) and No (+275), meaning a wager on “Yes” for $350 wins $100 and a wager on “No” for $100 wins $275.

The Senate Judiciary Committee is scheduled to meet Friday at 9:30 a.m. and will vote on whether to recommend Kavanaugh’s nomination for a full Senate vote.

If the committee votes in favor of the nomination, the vote to confirm Kavanaugh as the next Supreme Court Justice will have to wait three days due to federal law, meaning a confirmation vote could take place as early as Monday, October 1.

On Thursday, the U.S. Senate began hearing testimonies from both sexual assault accuser Christine Blasey Ford and President Donald Trump’s Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.

Before the hearing got underway this morning, Bovada oddsmakers had the odds of Kavanaugh being confirmation at Yes (-170) and No (+140), meaning he was favored to be confirmed.

After Christine Blasey Ford gave her testimony about the alleged sexual assault committed by Kavanaugh when they were in high school, the odds on him being confirmed to flipped to Yes (+120) and No (-150), favoring him not to be confirmed.

However, Kavanaugh was then allowed to defend himself, which was followed up by emotional outbursts led by South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, accusing Senate Democrats of “the most unethical sham since I’ve been in politics.”

As the committee allowed Kavanaugh to speak and followed up with questions, the odds flipped again and back to him being favored to be confirmed. The odds remain in his favor as of Friday morning.

The odds have been volatile all week as more women have come forward accusing Kavanaugh of sexual assault and critics saying there were holes in Ford’s story.

On September 16, 2018, Ford publicly alleged Kavanaugh attempted to rape her in 1982 at a high school party and passed a polygraph test with a former FBI agent. Kavanaugh has refused to take a polygraph test despite having a favorable opinion of it being used in job interviews as judge in Sack v. Dept. of Defense (2016).

In addition to Ford, two more women have come forward alleging they were the victims Kavanaugh and his friends, while in high school, would get girls “inebriated and disoriented” so the girls could be “gang raped” by Kavanaugh and his friends.

One more woman claims to have witnessed Kavanaugh and others take advantage of inebriated women at parties.

Kavanaugh vehemently denies all sexual assault allegations from both Ford and the other accusers, claiming he is innocent of all charges.

It uncertain if senators on the committee will allow the confirmation vote to take place with many committee members being unsure to vote in favor of recommendation as of Friday morning going into the committee meeting.